According to Reuters’s Chicago report on November 3rd, according to Reuters’s interviews with over 12 top disease specialists, with the slowing of the delta virus cases in many parts of the world, scientists are studying how and when COVID-19 will transform into a local epidemic in 2022 and beyond. The full text is excerpted as follows:
They expect that countries with high vaccination rates and a large number of natural immunization among infected people will be the first to achieve the above situation, such as the United States, the United Kingdom, Portugal and India. But there’s no telling that COVID-19 is still an unpredictable virus that will mutate with the spread of unvaccinated people.
No one can completely rule out the emergence of some people’s so-called “doomsday situation”, that is, the virus mutates to the point where it can avoid the hard won immunity. However, these experts are also increasingly confident that many countries will be able to get rid of the worst situation of the epidemic next year.
“We think that between now and the end of 2022, when we control the virus… We can significantly reduce the number of severe cases and deaths,” said Maria Vankl, an epidemiologist who led the WHO, COVID-19, told WHO.
This view of who is based on the results of cooperation with disease experts, who are predicting the possible development direction of the epidemic in the next year and a half. The goal of the organization is to complete the vaccination of 70% of the world’s population by the end of 2022.
“If we achieve this goal, it will be very different from the epidemiological point of view,” van kirkhoff said. At the same time, she is also worried about countries that have prematurely lifted epidemic prevention and control measures. “It’s amazing for me to see everyone take to the streets as if everything is over.”
According to a October 26th World Health Organization report, COVID-19′s diagnosis and death in almost all regions of the world have been decreasing since August. Europe is an exception. Delta virus has caused new damage in countries with low vaccination rates such as Russia and Romania and where the requirement to wear masks has been abolished.
The variant has also led to an increase in infection cases in countries such as Singapore and China, which have high vaccination rates and implement stricter blockade measures.
Mark lipsich, an epidemiologist at the Chen Zengxi School of public health at Harvard University, said: “this change will be different everywhere, because it is determined by the number of immunized people caused by natural infection and vaccination. The situation is different in different countries.”
Several experts said they expected the delta epidemic in the United States to end this month and this would be the last major outbreak.
Scott Gottlieb, former director of the U.S. Food and drug administration, said: “we are transitioning from the pandemic phase of the virus to the endemic phase. The virus will become a persistent threat in the United States.”
Chris Murray, a disease prediction expert at the University of Washington, also believes that the surge in delta cases in the United States will end in November. He said that the increase in the number of new cases this winter will not be too great. “If there is no serious new mutation, then COVID-19 will start to disappear from April next year.”
Despite the surge in cases as countries lift epidemic restrictions, just like Britain. But vaccines also seem to keep people out of hospitals. Neil Ferguson, an epidemiologist at Imperial College London, said that for Britain, “the time when a pandemic is an emergency has passed”.
However, COVID-19 will continue to be a major factor in disease and death in the coming years, and is quite similar to malaria endemic diseases.
“Endemic epidemics are not necessarily not serious,” van kirkhoff said. Some experts say COVID-19′s final performance will be like measles, and it will still break out among people with low coverage.
Other experts believe that COVID-19 will become more like seasonal respiratory diseases such as influenza. Or some experts say that the lethality of the virus may be reduced. Most of the affected people are children, but this may take decades.
Fred Hutchinson, an expert in COVID-19 cancer research center, who has been tracking COVID-19 evolution, believes that COVID-19 is likely to continue to mutate. It needs to customize the annual booster needle for the latest viral variants.
The novel coronavirus pneumonia outbreak is believed to have a significant impact on the health care system if Gottlieb and Murray believe that the new influenza virus is spreading simultaneously with the flu.
Post time: Nov-09-2021